
- The Charts
- A View from 1000 Ft
- Becoming Minimalist
- Sarbanes-Oxley and its Impact on Valuations
- The Megatrend – Productivity and Profitability
- The Risks of Stock Picking
- Evidence-Based Investing 101
THE POWER OF HUMAN INGENUITY AND OF CAPITAL MARKETS
In 2024, despite geopolitical tensions, economic challenges, and electoral uncertainty, public financial markets once again demonstrated resilience and the impact of human ingenuity. Markets efficiently processed information, set fair prices, and rewarded long-term investors with positive returns.
Early concerns about inflation, interest rates, and global conflicts predicted a potential economic downturn. However, businesses adapted, entrepreneurs innovated, and scientists made groundbreaking discoveries, keeping the economic engine running. Global equity markets delivered strong gains, with short-term fluctuations balanced by a century-long trend of steady growth driven by human creativity and productivity.
This reaffirmed our faith in markets and the power of disciplined investing. By diversifying, minimizing costs, managing risks, and focusing on long-term goals, investors were able to capture the rewards of collective innovation. These principles transcend predictions, reflecting the enduring potential of human problem-solving and resilience. As long as people continue to dream, innovate, and solve problems, the opportunities for growth and development will persist—benefiting investors and society alike.
A PICTURE TELLS A THOUSAND WORDS–AND A CHART TELLS THE STORY
Consumer Strengths
The American consumer continues to be a core driver of the economy – comprising around ⅔ of our economic activity. Even as hiring slowed, wage growth continued to outpace inflation and household wealth reached new records, supporting an ongoing expansion in household spending.
Labor Market Solid
The main support for consumer spending also began flashing warning signs in 2024 but ended the year favorably. The strong December hiring reports caused expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to be moderated.

Inflation Progress Stalled
Progress toward the central bank’s 2% inflation target has stalled in recent months following a swift decline in 2023 and additional progress in the first half of 2024. One of the Fed’s preferred inflation metrics — the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — rose 2.8% in November from a year ago.
Higher Rates Hurt the Housing Market
The Market Continued to be Driven Largely by a Small Group of Companies
Office Delinquency Rates Soared
The delinquency rate of office mortgages that have been securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 11.0% in December, a new all-time high, surpassing even the debt-meltdown during the Financial Crisis, Over the past 24 months, the delinquency rate for office CMBS has exploded by 9.4 percentage points, from 1.6% to 11.0%, from everything-is-just-fine to disaster.
Forecasts in Perspective: The “experts” usually get it wrong.
Future-Focused Investing

THE BIG PICTURE
The financial markets face 2025 with cautious optimism. Factors like the Fed’s easing cycle, disinflation, low recession risks, and solid earnings growth suggest a positive trajectory. U.S. growth is bolstered by expected deregulation, improved business confidence, and pro-growth policies, offsetting selective tariffs on imports. Lower interest rates should support modest global expansion, with the U.S. leading.
Risks remain, particularly the unpredictability of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, where he has pledged sweeping changes in trade, taxes, regulation, immigration, and spending. While his policy fluidity makes economic impacts uncertain, long-term trends in technology and onshoring, along with potential tax reforms, offer additional growth potential.
BECOMING MINIMALIST
The story is told of an old Egyptian man who lived simply in a small village. Each month he journeyed to the bustling markets of Cairo where merchants displayed their finest goods – shimmering fabrics, intricate jewelry and delicate porcelain figurines. The man marveled at their beauty, appreciating the craftsmanship and the stories behind each item; yet he never purchased anything. Instead, he returned home with a heart full of gratitude rejoicing in all that he didn’t need to possess.
This tale captures the essence of minimalism: It isn’t about suppressing the desire to acquire but about transcending the need altogether. Modern society often equates happiness with accumulation, encouraging us to view shopping centers as vending machines and a forum for fulfillment. The minimalist however sees them differently – as museums to explore and admire, not as sources of endless consumption. Minimalism is not deprivation but liberation. It shifts focus from material possessions to the richness of experiences, relationships and inner peace. By overcoming the compulsion to own, we gain clarity and freedom.
The old man’s visits to Cairo were not exercises in self-denial but celebrations of his contentment. Each trip reaffirmed that joy is not found in acquiring more, but in needing less. In embracing minimalism, we reclaim control over our lives. We discover that the most valuable things – peace, purpose and gratitude – cannot be bought. Like the Egyptian man, we can learn to admire the world’s beauty without feeling the need to possess it, finding abundance in simplicity
SOX: MORE RELIABLE FINANCIAL REPORTING LESSENS RISK AND INCREASES VALUATIONS.
Why stocks may not be overpriced: The likelihood of another Enron is significantly reduced

1. Mandates robust internal controls over financial reporting.
2. Executive Accountability: SOX requires CEOs/CFOs to personally certify financial statements.
3. Independent Oversight: The Public Accounting Oversight Board imposes stringent auditing standards to protect investors and the public interest.
4. Higher standards of transparency, independence and ethics.
THE MEGATREND: PRODUCTIVITY & ITS IMPACT ON PROFITS
Productivity growth is the foundation of economic progress, driving higher wages, consumption, and societal prosperity. U.S. economic output per hour worked has risen 8.9% over the past five years—a historic achievement surpassing previous decades, even amid the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Key drivers of this growth include the adoption of new technologies, streamlined operations, and workforce shifts to more productive roles. Innovations like QR codes, remote communication, and operational efficiency have significantly boosted productivity. Additionally, an influx of immigrants has filled labor gaps, enabling others to move into higher-skilled positions. The reopening of businesses also spurred competition for workers, improving wages and job opportunities
This sustained productivity growth bolsters economic expansion, supports profits, and helps control inflation, allowing businesses to grow while maintaining stable prices.
THE RISKS OF STOCK PICKING
Nvidia gained 200% this past year and Intel declined by 56%.
Think back to the glory days of Intel, when its iconic logo was on almost every computer.


KEY PRINCIPLES OF EVIDENCE-BASED EQUITY INVESTING (EBI)
The Science of Capital Markets Explained Briefly
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Market Efficiency
- Markets generally reflect all available information, making it difficult to consistently outperform them through stock picking or market timing.
- Instead, EBI focuses on capturing market returns rather than attempting to predict future movements.
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Diversification
- Spreading investments across asset classes, industries, and regions reduces risk and increases the likelihood of achieving consistent returns.
- EBI strategies emphasize owning a broad mix of assets to minimize the impact of underperformance in any single area seeking steady long term returns.
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Focus on Long-Term Goals
- Evidence shows that staying invested for the long term, even through market volatility, outperforms frequent trading or reacting to market noise.
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Low Costs
- High investment fees, taxes and transaction costs erode returns.
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Factor-Based Investing
- Decades of academic research have identified factors / attributes (like value, profitability, dividend growth, momentum, and quality) that drive returns. EBI seeks to tilt portfolios toward these factors for enhanced performance.
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Behavioral Discipline
- Investors often make poor decisions due to emotions like fear or greed. Evidence-based strategies promote discipline, avoiding emotional reactions to market changes.
By using a structured, research-backed framework, Evidence-Based Investing, investors can focus on what is controllable—like costs, diversification, and time in the market—while avoiding strategies that rely on guesswork or timing.
As trained Personal Financial Planners, our team stands ready to provide guidance and counsel in all related matters. We are deeply grateful to those who referred friends and family members to us. RVW is about providing a successful investment experience. That means more than just returns. It means providing peace of mind because you know that a transparent process backed by decades of research is powering every decision.
Sincerely,
The RVW Wealth Team:
Selwyn Gerber, Jonathan Gerber, Loren Gesas, Mary Ann Moe, Simon Liu, Jesse Picunko, Dylan Scott, Simmons Allen, Morgan Vickers, Kelly Sueoka, Shuey Wyne, Joseph Woods, Doug LaCombe, Jeffry Niedermeyer, April Taylor, Jeremy Churchill and Kelly Richardson
FOR IMPORTANT CURRENT COMPLIANCE AND DISCLOSURE INFORMATION GO TO http://www.rvwwealth.com/compliance
NOTE: The information provided above is not complete, may be erroneous, and omits important data. The charts are estimates and may contain inaccuracies or distortions.
Read and rely exclusively on actual offering documents and on statements received directly from your custodian. The report prepared by us is to highlight aspects of your investments but is incomplete. No decision should be made, or action taken based on it. Advice not provided in writing cannot be relied upon. Investments are not guaranteed and may lose value. Past performance is not indicative of likely future returns.