‘
Grounded in the science of capital markets and evidence-based investing, savvy investors remained focused on the enduring principles of:
• Broad global diversification to manage risk and capture opportunity
• Cost containment to enhance net returns
• Tax minimization to preserve after-tax growth
This framework enabled well designed portfolios to balance the long term goals of safety, growth, and income, even in uncertain environments.
At RVW, we are proud to serve as the steady hand on the tiller, through both calm and stormy seas.
In this RVW Report:
• A Wild Quarter on Wall Street: The Bull Remained Intact
• Why we don’t fear recessions—and neither should you
• The primary drivers of the bullish and the bearish narratives
• The Secret Source of the American Economy: Productivity
• The “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”—Implications for investors
• Is it Too Late to Invest in this Market?
• Why staying invested has paid off and marking timing didn’t
• The Shrinking Stock Market: The Decline in Listed Companies
• Living the Artful Life
FROM TARIFF PAIN TO RECORD HIGHS, A WILD QUARTER ON WALL STREET
“The S&P 500 has now added more than 9% since Trump announced sweeping tariffs” – Wall St Journal
2025 saw some of the largest daily market swings in history. On April 9, the S&P 500 surged 9.5%—its biggest one-day gain since 2008—after President Trump paused tariffs for 90 days. This followed a 6.0% drop on April 4 after sweeping U.S. tariffs were announced.
The S&P 500 hit nine all-time highs this year. One came on February 19, just before a nearly 19% decline through April 8. The index then rallied almost 25% to a new high by June. Despite fears about U.S. exceptionalism, a bull market persisted. Sentiment soured early in the year amid erratic trade policy, rising debt, Middle East conflict, and a weakening dollar. Leading tech stocks (“Magnificent 7”) underperformed, feeding bearish narratives.
The April correction began with Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, affecting nearly all sectors and pushing stocks down nearly 20%. Media coverage turned sharply negative.
Technical indicators remained constructive. After sharp losses, markets rebounded. The April 9 tariff truce triggered the 9.5% rally, and the S&P held support at the 200-day moving average despite 4.5% bond yields and elevated inflation.
Several long-standing trends reversed: foreign stocks outperformed U.S. equities, gold had its best first half since 2007, and the dollar had its worst start since 1973—the year Bretton Woods collapsed. Following Nixon’s 1971 “Shock,” floating exchange rates replaced the gold standard, the dollar fell 15%, the S&P dropped nearly 12%, and gold rose 88%.
WHY WE DON’T FEAR RECESSIONS – AND NEITHER SHOULD YOU
“Volatility is the price of admission—the prize inside is superior long-term returns.” – Morgan Housel
Investors often ask whether a possible recession on the horizon should change an investor’s long-term strategy. The short answer is: no — because while recessions are an inevitable part of the economic cycle, they are neither permanent nor a reason to deviate from a disciplined investment plan.
Recessions Are Normal, Recovery is Inevitable
Historically, recessions occur approximately once every 5 to 10 years. They may feel unsettling, but they are temporary slowdowns — not permanent declines. More importantly, every recession in history has eventually been followed by recovery and expansion, often leading to new market highs.
The Stock Market Looks Forward
Markets are forward-looking, typically beginning to rebound well before the economy recovers. Attempting to “wait out” a recession risks missing these crucial turning points, when some of the strongest market gains occur. Staying invested ensures that clients participate fully in the eventual upswing.
Long-Term Growth Trumps Short-Term Fear
Over time, markets have rewarded patient investors who stayed the course. For a portfolio that is properly diversified, cost-efficient, and tax-aware — like those we build at RVW — temporary economic contractions have proven to be mere detours on the road to long-term wealth creation.
THE STOCK MARKET OUTLOOK: HERE ARE SOME OF THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF THE BULLISH AND THE BEARISH NARRATIVES
Key Reasons for Optimism
1. The ongoing benefits of the digital revolution with the added impact of Artificial Intelligence.
A.I. impacts corporate efficiency in much the same way as the introduction of electricity impacted the economy a hundred years ago. In addition, billions are being spent to build data centers and to expand computing capacity. Consequential robust profit margins have helped amplify earnings growth during this period, which in turn helps explain why the stock market has been setting record highs.
2. Potential Interest Rate Reductions
There is a growing consensus that central banks, including the Federal Reserve, may begin reducing interest rates in the near term. Lower rates generally reduce borrowing costs, support business investment, and enhance consumer spending — all of which tend to be supportive of stock valuations.
3. Weaker U.S. Dollar
The recent decline in the value of the U.S. dollar enhances the profitability of American companies with significant international exposure. A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive abroad and increases the value of foreign earnings when translated back into dollars.
4. Growth in Tariff-Protected Industries
Certain sectors are poised to benefit from newly imposed tariffs, which are designed to protect domestic industries from foreign competition. These protections may create growth opportunities for companies operating in strategically shielded sectors such as manufacturing, semiconductors, and critical materials.
Key Reasons for Pessimism
1. Uncertainty in Tariff and Political Policy
The global trade environment remains highly fluid, with tariffs and trade policies shifting rapidly. This unpredictability makes it difficult for companies to plan their operations and can contribute to market volatility. Moreover, political dynamics both in the U.S. and abroad continue to inject an element of instability into the economic outlook.
2. Inflationary Pressures
Tariffs, while protecting certain industries, often lead to higher input costs and consumer prices — contributing to inflationary pressures. Rising inflation can erode purchasing power, squeeze profit margins, and compel central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer than markets anticipate.
THE BOTTOM LINE: The story line changes but the play always ends the same way – with the bull victorious.
THE STRENGTH OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY
THE SECRET SAUCE: PRODUCTIVITY
“It’s dangerous to underestimate Corporate America, “wrote Savita Subramanian, Bank of America’s head of U.S. equity strategy, in a recent note that explores “What could go right for the S&P 500.” The handful of topics she addresses is corporate America’s sometimes stunning ability to maintain and even improve profitability even under the most difficult circumstances. Specifically, she addresses the S&P 500’s robust profits despite supply chain disruptions and the rising costs of goods and labor – a trend that has caught analysts on their heels. “S&P 500 companies are 70% more labor efficient than they were in the 80s,” Subramanian observed. “Today’s labor shortages and onshoring initiatives would likely incent companies to automate, driving further efficiency gains.”
A PICTURE TELLS A THOUSAND WORDS–AND A CHART TELLS THE STORY
Growing Productivity
Consumer Spending is Strong
Impact on Investors
With President Donald Trump’s signature on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the federal government has provided some much-desired consistency around the direction of tax policy. The sprawling bill has so many components and areas of impact that it’s worth looking at how it may impact different categories of investors. Below is a summary of some of the changes and provisions of the bill.
1. All Taxpayers: Permanent Income Tax Cuts
A chief question surrounding the bill was whether expiring income tax cuts enacted in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 would be renewed or would expire at the end of 2025. The OBBBA affirmed that current income tax brackets and rates will no longer have an expiration date. Tax changes in the bill take effect immediately and marginal income tax rates will continue to top out at 37%. The looming date when those tax rates would go away is now gone: It’s permanent in the sense that it would take another act of Congress to change the law.
2. High Net Worth Investors: Estate Tax Clarity
The bill also made permanent and even increased the lifetime gift and estate tax exemption, which is the amount you can give away or pass on to heirs before incurring estate and gift taxes. That exemption is already historically high and will increase from $13.99 million for individuals this year to $15 million in 2026 and indexed for inflation in future years.
Maintaining those high exemptions could be especially welcome for high net worth investors who had been rushing to take advantage of the higher exemption. This law removes some of the immediate pressure for high net worth investors to move assets out of their estate.
3. “High Tax: States: Higher Cap on Deductions
The state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap was significantly increased, from $10,000 to $40,000. However, it will now phase out based on income, starting for individuals or couples filing jointly with more than $500,000 annual adjusted gross income. It will phase out completely for those making $633,333 or more per year. Those cutoffs will increase 1% annually, but only for four years — this provision will sunset in 2029, reverting the SALT cap on deductions to $10,000. All of these amounts will be indexed for inflation in future years.
Importantly for some taxpayers, pass-through entity SALT deductions are not affected by this law. Pass-through entities forgo certain corporate taxes and “pass through” the earnings to individuals who then pay income tax on them. After the TCJA passed in 2017, several states provided a workaround to the SALT cap by changing their tax codes and allowing deductions at the business level. Early versions of the bill would have limited the effectiveness of these tactics, but those rules didn’t make it into the final version of the OBBBA.
4. Small Business Owners: Favorable Treatment of Income and Expenses
Changes intended to boost small businesses contain another bonus for taxpayers using pass-through entities: Section 199A of the TCJA has also been made permanent. This provision allows a 20% qualified business income (QBI) deduction for certain pass-throughs, bringing their tax rates in line with what corporations are paying. The OBBBA also expands who can benefit from this rule.
The law will also allow small business owners to immediately deduct 100% of the cost of some depreciable real property used as an integral part of production activity. It will also reinstate the immediate deduction of research expenses in tax years 2025 and beyond. For businesses with average annual gross receipts below $31 million, the reinstatement is retroactive to 2022, providing a boost to smaller businesses. Qualifications for qualified small business stock (QSBS) were also expanded, creating additional planning opportunities for certain company founders and others who may hold QSBS.
5. Those Saving for Education: An Expanded Approach to 529s
Tax-advantaged 529 accounts can now be used to cover a wider array of qualified educational expenses, including some trade credential programs. Qualified education expenses in connection with enrollment or attendance at an elementary or secondary private or religious school (kindergarten through 12th grade) have been expanded beyond just tuition, including costs for books, online education materials and tutoring fees. Additionally, starting in 2026, the annual limit for K-12 expenses will increase to $20,000 (up from $10,000). Tax-advantaged treatment applies to savings used for qualified education expenses. State tax treatment varies.
The law also introduces “Trump accounts,” a new type of child savings account. These garnered a lot of attention chiefly because the federal government will deposit a one-time $1,000 gift in any Trump account that qualifies for a child born from Jan. 1, 2026, through Dec. 25, 2028, but the accounts themselves are relatively limited.
NOTE: This is not complete and may include omissions or misstatements. It should not be relied upon for your tax or estate planning.
The S&P 500 rallied 28% off of the April lows to hit its first all-time high since February 19 last week.
The index closed out the first half of 2025 at another all-time high, its 5th of the year.
At RVW, we are frequently asked whether it’s possible — or prudent — to try to time the market. The simple and consistent answer is: almost never. Market timing, the strategy of moving in and out of markets based on short-term predictions, may sound appealing in theory. However, in practice, it’s an exceptionally difficult — if not impossible — strategy to execute successfully and consistently.
The High Cost of Missing the Best Days: Markets are inherently unpredictable in the short term. Many of the stock market’s strongest gains occur in sudden bursts, often following periods of sharp decline or heightened volatility. Attempting to sidestep downturns risks missing these critical recovery days — and the long-term cost of doing so is substantial.
Consider this: If an investor missed just the 10 best days in the market over the past 20 years, their returns would be cut nearly in half compared to staying fully invested. Missing the 20 best days would reduce returns even further, often erasing much of the long-term compounding benefit that equity investing offers. Since these best days are virtually impossible to predict in advance, and often coincide with periods of maximum pessimism, the only reliable strategy is to stay fully invested.
Market Timing’s Track Record: Study after study shows that even professional investors and fund managers struggle to time markets with any consistency. Short-term movements are driven by complex variables — economic data, geopolitics, investor sentiment — that no one can forecast accurately over time. Moreover, successful market timing requires being right twice: knowing when to exit the market and when to re-enter. The odds of getting both decisions right repeatedly are extraordinarily low. See the hypothetical illustrations above and below.
The U.S. economy has seen an ongoing wave of consolidation across industries. Larger firms have acquired smaller competitors, reducing the number of independent public companies. M&A activity remains a preferred growth strategy, particularly in sectors like technology, healthcare, and finance, where scale and market share are essential for competitiveness.2. Private Capital as an IPO Alternative
For emerging and growth-stage companies, raising capital privately has become more attractive than pursuing an Initial Public Offering (IPO). With abundant capital from venture capital, private equity, and sovereign wealth funds, companies can secure funding without the regulatory burdens, disclosure requirements, and short-term pressures of the public markets.
3. The Rise of Conglomerates and Diversified Giants
The growth of mega-cap conglomerates has contributed to market concentration. Companies like Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet dominate sectors that previously would have supported dozens of smaller competitors. These giants not only outcompete but often acquire promising smaller firms, further shrinking the public company landscape.
4. Cost and Regulatory Complexity of Being Public
The costs of maintaining public listing, including compliance with Sarbanes-Oxley, SEC reporting, and corporate governance obligations, can be prohibitive for smaller firms. These requirements deter new listings and encourage smaller public firms to consider private alternatives.
5. Private Investing Opportunities for institutions
Institutional investors increasingly allocate capital to private markets, including private equity, private credit, and venture capital. These alternative investments often offer higher return potential and diversification benefits, reducing the demand and support for a broader public stock universe.
ARS LONGA, VITA BREVIS
In the 4th century B.C., the Ancient Greek physician Hippocrates, wrote in his Aphorisms (translated into Latin here):Vita brevis, ars longa, occasio praeceps, experimentum periculosum, iudicium difficile.
Life is short, art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment dangerous, judgment difficult.
The phrase has been further tightened and adapted, including by the Roman statesman and Stoic philosopher Seneca, into the following:
Ars longa; vita brevis.
Art is long, life is short.
In a strict interpretation, this might simply be about your art: The creative craft or endeavor you choose to pursue.
But allow me to offer a more liberal interpretation:
It isn’t simply about art, but about an artful life.
• To live artfully is to create ripples that extend beyond the self. To shape your very short existence in such a way that its echoes outlast your pulse.
• To live artfully is to focus on creation, not consumption. To share your gifts with the world. To share your light.
• To live artfully is to embrace curiosity. To learn for the sake of learning. To renew each day the child-like awe with which you used to see the world.
• To live artfully is to give with no expectation of return. To center yourself in generosity and kindness.
• To live artfully is to live differently. To wake up early. To walk slowly. To listen intently. To stand proudly. To focus deeply.
• To live artfully is to treat the ordinary with the sort of reverence typically reserved for the extraordinary.
Ars longa; vita brevis. Art is long, life is short.
So, live artfully.
As trained Personal Financial Planners, our team stands ready to provide guidance and counsel in all related matters. We are deeply grateful to those who referred friends and family members to us. RVW is about providing a successful investment experience. That means more than just returns. It means providing peace of mind because you know that a transparent process backed by decades of research is powering every decision.Your valuable feedback is important. Please take a moment and give us a review on Google
(click here).
The (Growing) RVW Wealth Team:
Selwyn Gerber, Jonathan Gerber, Loren Gesas, Mary Ann Moe, Simon Liu, Jesse Picunko, Dylan Scott, Simmons Allen, Morgan Vickers, Kelly Sueoka, Shuey Wyne, Joseph Woods, Doug LaCombe, Jeffry Niedermeyer, April Taylor, Donovan Schafer, Emma Peitzer, and Kelly Richardson
RVW Wealth is committed to transparency and regulatory best practices. You may view our current Form ADV Brochure (Firm Brochure), Privacy Notice, and other compliance disclosures at: http://www.rvwwealth.com/compliance. If you would like a printed copy of any document, we will gladly provide one upon request.
NOTE: The information provided above is not complete, may be erroneous, and omits important data. The charts are estimates and hypothetical, and may contain inaccuracies or distortions.
Read and rely exclusively on actual offering documents and on statements received directly from your custodian. The report prepared by us is to highlight aspects of your investments but is incomplete. No decision should be made, or action taken based on it. Advice not provided in writing cannot be relied upon. Investments are not guaranteed and may lose value. Past performance is not indicative of likely future returns.